Ahead of the 97th Academy Awards ceremony on Sunday, everyone who cares about Hollywood patting itself on the back at a lavish, 4-hour gala will publish their predictions. Some will be contrarian, some will be pinpoint accurate to secure well-deserved bragging rights, and some will be downright asinine.

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Truth be told, awards season has not been the priority this year that it’s been in years past, largely due to seismic life events and partially due to the lack of good movies this year. So, this article will cover only the major awards, offering predictions on who/what will win, who/what actually deserves the award, and who/what might sneak in the backdoor and pull off a shocker.

Let’s begin!

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Original Screenplay:

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Anora - Sean Baker

The Brutalist - Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold

A Real Pain - Jesse Eisenberg

September 5 - Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; co-written by Alex David

The Substance - Coralie Fargeat

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Will Win: Sean Baker

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Eisenberg is the sentimental choice, but the somewhat unjustified Anora hype train will give Baker the statuette.

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Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg

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A Real Pain has flaws, and Culkin’s performance does some heavy lifting. Still, tons of sincerity permeates Eisenberg’s screenwriting debut, and that’s because he’s a writer whose chief concern is his story and how to honor it, not winning awards.

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Dark Horse: Coralie Fargeat

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If The Substance wins anything other than Actress (and even that won’t be wholly deserved), it’ll be an absolute travesty. If the favorites don’t take it home, the legion of people who inexplicably love Fargeat’s body horror flick will get her the win.

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Adapted Screenplay:

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A Complete Unknown - James Mangold and Jay Cocks

Conclave - Peter Straughan

Emilia Pérez - Jacques Audiard

Nickel Boys - RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes

Sing Sing - Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley

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Will Win: Peter Straughan

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This category hasn’t been so horrific in a long time. Conclave will win almost by default.

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Should Win: Peter Straughan

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Again, this category is baaaaaaaad.

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Dark Horse: James Mangold and Jay Cocks

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Inexplicably, there are people who think A Complete Unknown is significantly better than it is; if they want to force feed it an Oscar, this would be the category to make that happen.

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Actor in a Supporting Role:

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Yura Borisov - Anora as Igor

Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain as Benji Kaplan

Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown as Pete Seeger

Guy Pearce - The Brutalist as Harrison Lee Van Buren, Sr.

Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice as Roy Cohn

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Will Win: Kieran Culkin

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Culkin hasn’t missed a beat. The Academy will want to give A Real Pain something, especially since its screenplay nod is up in the air. Culkin is riding the Succession wave even after the show’s conclusion, and it’s going to take him all the way to the Oscar stage.

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Should Win: Kieran Culkin

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Perhaps Benji mirrors his Succession character and media persona, but great actors like Gene Hackman and Denzel Washington can find the nuances in each character that make them feel unique. Culkin is a great actor, and he singularly saves Benji, and thus the movie, from faltering (but Strong is absolutely fantastic).

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Dark Horse: Yuri Borisov

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Culkin is a lock. However, if someone upsets him, it’ll be Borisov. Anora has overtaken The Brutalist in the Academy’s eyes, Edward Norton will never win an Oscar, and The Apprentice is too polarizing to win a trophy.

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Actress in a Supporting Role

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Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown as Joan Baez

Ariana Grande - Wicked as Galinda “Glinda” Upland

Felicity Jones - The Brutalist as Erzsébet Tóth

Isabella Rossellini - Conclave as Sister Agnes

Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez as Rita Mora Castro

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Will Win: Zoe Saldaña

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It’s sad that Saldaña is winning for such a horrible movie and “meh” performance. She’s been an incredible talent for decades and has never gotten the credit. It’s sad that her awards season sweep wasn’t for her better work.

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Should Win: Felicity Jones

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Felicity Jones gets criminally underused by Hollywood. She couldn’t give a bad performance if she tried. It’d be nice if she won here since she takes an underwritten woman and makes her a true force in a movie dominated by male characters and technical gimmicks, but she won’t.

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Dark Horse: Isabella Rossellini

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Saldaña’s a lock, but the Academy loves career wins. Considering she’s Hollywood royalty, it would make such an honor all the more self-indulgent of the Academy. It won’t happen, but if there’s a shocker in this category, it’s gonna be Rossellini.

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Actress in a Leading Role:

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Cynthia Erivo - Wicked as Elphaba Thropp

Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez as Emilia Pérez/Juan “Manitas” Del Monte

Mikey Madison - Anora as Anora “Ani” Mikheeva

Demi Moore - The Substance as Elizabeth Sparkle

Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here as Eunice Paiva

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Will Win: Demi Moore

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In one of the most undeserved career narrative wins ever, Demi Moore, who’s starred in more bad movies and turned in more wooden performances than are presently countable, will inexplicably win an Oscar for a solid performance.

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Should Win: Cynthia Erivo

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Frankly, this is a weak year for the category. Inevitable winner Moore is a solid B; Gascón is hardly revelatory; Madison and Torres are good but stranded by mediocre material. Erivo is the only person who actively raises the bar for her character.

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Dark Horse: Mikey Madison

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Anora doesn’t quite feel inevitable, but its fans may be enough to push Madison over the top.

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Actor in a Leading Role:

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Adrien Brody - The Brutalist as László Tóth

Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown as Bob Dylan

Colman Domingo - Sing Sing as John “Divine G” Whitfield

Ralph Fiennes - Conclave as Cardinal Thomas Lawrence

Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice as Donald Trump

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Will Win: Adrien Brody

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My gut says Chalamet, and I may regret this, but Brody was dominating awards season before Chalamet shocked at the SAGs. The only time an actor has upset for the SAG and won the Oscar was Roberto Benigni for Life is Beautiful nearly 30 years ago. Brody’s got it made.

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Should Win: Ralph Fiennes

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Brody is great in The Brutalist, but he won for doing the exact same thing in The Pianist and there’s no subtle difference between the two performances. Fiennes has a much more difficult task in a less flashy role.

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Dark Horse: Timothée Chalamet

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If anyone does upset Brody, it would be Chalamet, but it would be a shame if he did. He’s good in A Complete Unknown, but he’s nowhere near Brody and Fiennes, and he’s the weakest in the category.

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Director:

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Sean Baker - Anora

Brady Corbet - The Brutalist

James Mangold - A Complete Unknown

Jacques Audiard - Emilia Pérez

Coralie Fargeat - The Substance

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Will Win: Sean Baker

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It’s between Baker and Corbet. Baker has the edge because he isn’t a blowhard and there are no silly AI controversies surrounding his movie.

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Should Win: Brady Corbet

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Corbet’s head is planted neck deep up his ass, and his self-congratulatory nonsense is insufferable and the world would be better if he simply made movies and never spoke again. One must imagine that voters have taken notice, and while a director having a passionate love affair with movies isn’t exactly Academy poison, Corbet’s is more about his ego, and when it’s that transparent, you don’t get Oscars.

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Dark Horse: Coralie Fargeat

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The Substance is crap, but Fargeat is a woman and the movie is about women’s struggles and while she has zero chance in the category, that’s enough to make her the dark horse. It’s incredibly patronizing instead of sincerely progressive, but that’s Hollywood for ya.

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Picture:

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Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown
Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

I’m Still Here

Nickel Boys

The Substance

Wicked

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Will Win: Conclave

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This category is one where the three sub-categories don’t apply. There is no “dark horse;” this is a legitimate three-horse race. Anora took the PGA, DGA, and WGA; the only film to win all three and lose Best Picture is Brokeback Mountain.

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Yet, something doesn’t feel right. There’s precedent for a movie surprising at the SAGs for Best Performance by a Cast and then upsetting the favorite at the Oscars. Due to the ranked voting system for Best Picture, Anora and The Brutalist will have a tougher time getting over the top. Conclave is more palatable and topical. It may be a fool’s guess, but it’ll look like genius if proven correct.

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Should Win: The Brutalist

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Conclave is good. Anora and A Complete Unknown are fine. Wicked has no business with a nom, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, and The Substance are absolute garbage, and Dune: Part Two deserves credit for the artistry but not much else. The Brutalist is the only movie in the bunch that approaches “great,” so it almost deserves the win by default.

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Dark Horse: Anora

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Again, there is no true “dark horse” in this category, and for many, Anora is the odds-on favorite. Thus is the nature of this sort of article; if there’s a choice for what will win, there must be an alternative. If my estimation about Conclave is wrong, it will undoubtedly be Anora that takes the crown, giving Baker the due he’s been deprived of since The Florida Project got Oscar attention seven years ago.