96th Academy Award Predictions

The official predictions for Hollywood's biggest night.

March 7, 2024

With only four days until the 96th annual Academy Awards and a few races still (somewhat) up in the air, it’s time to throw out official predictions. Any self-respecting critic/blogger/random person must publicize these because that way, any lightning rod declarations or spicy hot takes can be proven accurate, and any cosmically wrong predictions can get laughed at retroactively.

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Best Sound:

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The Creator

Maestro

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

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What Will Win: Oppenheimer

The last-minute cinephile push for Zone of Interest is an act of principle and concept… and has zero effect on voting. No movie will snatch this from Oppenheimer.

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Best Cinematography:

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El Conde

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

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What Will Win: Oppenheimer

One could argue for many movies, but there’s no indication that Oppenheimer won’t dominate the technical categories. Hoytema will likely benefit from Nolan by association, having worked on Dunkirk and Interstellar.

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Best Original Score:

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American Fiction

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

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What Will Win: Oppenheimer

Two nominees are moot; Williams’ nod is honorary, and American Fiction is a head-scratcher. That leaves the other three, and Ludwig Göransson is both a previous winner and the clear favorite based on his dominance this season.

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Best Original Song:

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“The Fire Inside” - Flamin’ Hot

“I’m Just Ken” - Barbie

“It Never Went Away” - American Symphony

"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)" - Killers of the Flower Moon

“What Was I Made For?” - Barbie

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What Will Win: “What Was I Made For?” - Barbie

“I’m Just Ken” is the dark horse and superior choice, but from the second Margot Robbie closed her eyes and envisioned a future in the human world, Billie Eilish and brother Finneas had their second Oscar on lock.

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Best Documentary Feature:

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Bobi Wine: The People’s President

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

To Kill a Tiger

20 Days in Mariupol

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What Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

The war in Ukraine is an international outrage, and any movie covering it that wasn’t absolute garbage would take the award. That’s not an indictment of 20 Days, just a reality of the Oscars.

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Best Documentary Short:

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The ABCs of Book Burning

The Barber of Little Rock

Island in Between

The Last Repair Shop

Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

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What Will Win: The Last Repair Shop

‍These categories are always hard to call; the movies get no publicity or fanfare before the big night. The safe bet is a movie about kids and music.

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Best Supporting Actress:

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Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple

America Ferrera - Barbie

Jodie Foster - Nyad

Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

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Who Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

This is the weakest acting category, and the Academy made Randolph’s win easier by nominating mediocre performances. She’s fantastic in The Holdovers and has swept all the major awards; this is a no-brainer.

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Best Supporting Actor:

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Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction

Robert de Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey, Jr. - Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling - Barbie

Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

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Who Will Win: Robert Downey, Jr. - Oppenheimer

One could argue that thanks to Jason Clarke, Downey, Jr. isn’t even the best supporting actor in the movie. Still, no doubt his first “serious” role after the MCU would win him an Oscar, and he’s dominated awards season.

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Best Costume Design:

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Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

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What Will Win: Poor Things

The only real competition is Barbie unless they go with a political vote for Killers. The most likely scenario is that Barbie and Poor Things will split Costume Design and Production Design; this is the safer choice for the former.

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Best Original Screenplay:

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Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Maestro

May December

Past Lives

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What Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall

In a weak year for the category, Anatomy of a Fall’s pretentious title, status as the film that got away for International Feature, and bloated “thematics” will surge it to an undeserved victory.

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Best Adapted Screenplay:

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American Fiction

Barbie

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

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What Will Win: American Fiction

It’s a travesty, really, considering the narrative is unfocused and uninspiring, and the comedy hits only about 60% of the time. Still, the second the trailer premiered, it had this award locked up. Good marketing goes a long way…

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Best Film Editing:

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Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

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What Will Win: Oppenheimer

This one is more of a process of elimination. Anatomy of a Fall will win Adapted Screenplay as consolation for the International Feature snafu. The Holdovers has no fire behind it, Poor Things isn’t a standout, and Killers, while criticized more by the public than film circles for its length, is too long.

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Best Makeup:

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Golda

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

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What Will Win: Maestro

‍Golda only gave Helen Mirren a big nose, and the rest are either not substantial enough (Society of the Snow) or not offering as much in the makeup department as Maestro. Besides, although they didn’t give Bradley Cooper Best Director props, and he has no shot at Best Actor, his brethren will give Maestro something.

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Best Live Action Short:

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The After

Invincible

Knight of Fortune

Red, White and Blue

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

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What Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

If there's a spoiler, it's likely Red, White and Blue, but despite its topical subject matter, it's a tad too on the nose, even for the Oscars. Wes Anderson is far from an Oscar darling, but his pedigree should secure the win.

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Best Animated Short:

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Letter to a Pig

Ninety-Five Senses

Our Uniform

Pachyderme

War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

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What Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

When in doubt, and this category is always in doubt, go with The Beatles.

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Best Animated Feature:

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The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

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What Will Win: The Boy and the Heron

Seasoned award trackers know this is the tighest category. Whether it goes to Heron or Spider-Verse, a streak will end, and a perfect predictor will fail. It's a crapshoot, but due to the first film's victory and there being one left in the trilogy, the safer bet is Heron.

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Best International Feature:

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Io Capitano

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Teachers' Lounge

The Zone of Interest

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What Will Win: The Zone of Interest

With Anatomy of a Fall out of the running, robbing us of a race, The Zone of Interest has an unimpeded path to victory.

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Best Visual Effects:

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The Creator

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

Napoleon

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What Will Win: Godzilla Minus One

It’s tight between Minus One and The Creator, but, although nearly not as much as the Big Five, all Oscars are narrative-based. The Minus One team’s reaction to their Oscar nod has become an Internet sensation, and The Creator’s poor box office returns and lukewarm reviews will likely do it in.

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Best Production Design:

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Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

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What Will Win: Barbie

‍Barbie and Poor Things will likely split the two awards they’re competing against each other to claim. If Poor Things takes Costume Design, Barbie’s Barbieland will earn the win.

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Best Actress:

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Annette Bening - Nyad

Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan - Maestro

Emma Stone - Poor Things

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Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Gladstone’s victory will mirror Michelle Yeoh’s last year for Everything Everywhere All At Once. It’s a self-aggrandizing narrative win that leaves a titanic performance, in this case, Stone’s instead of Cate Blanchett’s, undeservedly in the dust.

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Best Actor:

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Bradley Cooper - Maestro

Colman Domingo - Rustin

Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

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Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Giamatti fever after his upset victory at the Critics’ Choice Awards has lost power. Yet, even after Murphy’s BAFTA win, many noted the organization always leans towards its own and meant nothing. Alas, the SAG confirmed the inevitable: since Oppenheimer hit theaters, this award has been Murphy’s.

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